Jaskakärpänen (23.3.2017 12:12:09) -- Maailmanpolitiikka

Italiasta tulee kaikkien aikojen jytky =)

Tuo gallup oli toki jo eilen mutta jäi huomaamatta
kuinka lähellä Grillo on päästä valtaan isseksensä.

Se on sit heipat €urolle ja liira tilalle ja heipat
kans €uvostoliitolle.


The Five Star Movement is now only 6 points away from an absolute majority that would allow it to govern on its own – assuming that the present electoral law for the chamber of deputies forms the basis of a new electoral system for the Senate. If one adds up all the non-extremist parties (and let’s count Berlusconi’s Forza d’Italia among them for the sake of argument), one would get to just over 40% – with the PD, Forza Italia, and the New Centre Right of foreign minister Angelino Alfano which only gets 2.8%.

Worse for the PD, its support will fall even more after the split of the party becomes a reality – which it will before the elections. The poll puts the hypothetical support for PD dissidents at 7.1%, which would reduce the PD’s overall support to under 20%. The new left, together with the old left, would have the support of close to 10%. All this shows that there can be only two election outcomes: either a fragmented parliament, with unstable and shifting coalitions, or a majority reign of the Five Star Movement. The Five Star Movement promises not to enter coalitions, and it will be interesting to see whether the party maintains that position after the elections.

I fail to see how M5s was “6 points away from an absolute majority that would allow it to govern on its own” as Eurointelligence states, but a coalition of eurosceptic parties totaling over 50% is easily at hand.

Support for M5S (Five Star Movement) + Fi (Forza Italia) + LN (Lega Nord), all eurosceptic parties, totals 54.5%in the most recent poll.

Forza Italia is former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi’s party.

On March 9, Bloomberg reported Enter Berlusconi: A Man, a Ban, and His Plan to Restore the Lira.

If elections were held today, eurosceptic parties would easily hit not only a 40% threshold but a 50% threshold as well.

Whether eurosceptic could agree to form a coalition is another matter, but I suspect they would, especially if the alternative was a minority government led by PD.


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